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Joined 8 months ago
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Cake day: July 28th, 2025

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  • well established industry itself seeks efficiency. The emissions are generally from energy use, Energy costs money, they try to find more efficient ways. Stable industries will have already done a lot of innovation to improve efficiency and may even have hit diminishing returns to research once their processes are well understood. Pick any industrial process and you’ll find loads of papers on efficiency at all steps. But at the end of the day if you need to smelt iron ore into high quality pig iron, you’re going to need a lot of heat for a period of time. Best way to reduce industrial GHG emissions is probably to buy less stuff or maybe buy better quality stuff that lasts longer. Not many consumers wan’t to do that though.

    Agriculture is weird because we’ve pushed yields up very high with all the fertilizers and monocultures and so on, but i’d think its similar, diminishing returns - and maybe yields have actually been pushed higher than they should for long run soil health, so you might have a viscious cycle of fertilizer development. You could maybe try to shift people to have less meat and more crops, or maybe stuff like seaweed or algae based food, or try to stop them overeating. I feel like the food industry does get a bit of stick for obesity - not that that seems to do much.

    Problem with AI is the bubble that means the focus of effort is unlikely to be efficiency; so long as investors are dumb, don’t know what they’re buying and/or speculation oriented then the bang for buck investment (in the short term) is to generate hype. They’d gladly burn energy, to generate more hype to, borrow more, to buy more energy , to generate more hype, to borrow more . . . all the while they’re ‘crowding out’ boring established investments in well understood processes.




  • Post WWII did a few ok things for social policy, but didn’t do much at all to reduce GHG emissions - except maybe China’s one child policy and a more natural reduction in fertitlity in many other countries. but despite those , global population has still gone up 3-4x in that period.

    Western world did begin to reduce coal usage but greedily replaced it with petroleum products. Lots of them also axed efficient public transport systems like intercity railways and local tram/streetcar systems in favour of inefficient but more convenient (up to the point of congestion) personal automobiles and quite staggering numbers (billions/trillions/fuckillions) of passenger km of aviation. I’m struggling to imagine a less efficient way to organise people and space that gave rise to that. Maybe we could have everyone live in Europe, work in Australia and go to USA for groceries.

    Only major economic recessions like 2008 or covid actually cause emissions to fall in any material way - and they don’t last close to long enough. Almost ever other clean tech thing of efficiency improvement is offset by increasing demand.

    A few low density countries like Iceland and Norway were able to build enough hydro power to at least get clean electricity but , Norway? erm hardly anti-fossil fuel. Hydro is deemed impractical/inhumane in denser populated countries where they refuse to flood out all the valley dwellers.